Citation

Fussell E, Curran SR, Dunbar MD, Babb MA, Thompson L, Meijer-Irons J. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 2017; 669(1): 146-167.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0002716216682942

PMID

29326480

PMCID

PMC5760176

Abstract

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

Language: en

Keywords

disaster events; hurricanes; losses; migration; population; weather