Citation

Tanishita M, Van Wee B. IATSS Res. 2017; 41(3): 107-112.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, Publisher Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.iatssr.2016.09.003

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Speed and speed variation are widely believed to be key issues in the understanding of traffic accidents. However, there has not been a substantial amount of research that focuses on the interaction between the mean speed and the change in the mean speeds. In this paper we use a five-minute continuous monitoring data of the mean speed on an expressway in Japan. Applying a two dimensional additive Poisson model, we show that not only mean speeds but also changes in mean speeds affect per vehicle-kilometer traffic accident rates. The highest probability of an accident occurs when speed reduces from 110 to 85km/h. Another area of high accident probability occurs when the average speed increases from 65 to 90km/h. In addition, we found that accident rates are higher when there is sunny weather, rather than when it is cloudy.

Language: en

Keywords

Changes in mean speeds; Per vehicle-kilometer traffic accident rates; Two dimensional additive Poisson model