Kang L, Chen X, Han P, Ma Y, Jia L, Fu L, Yu H, Wang L, Hou L, Yu X, An Z, Wang X, Li L, Zhang Y, Zhao P, Guo Q. Rejuvenation Res. 2018; 21(5): 416-422.
Affiliation
TEDA International Cardiovascular Hospital, Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, TEDA International Cardiovascular Hospital, Cardiovascular Clinical College of Tianjin Medica University , 61,Third Avenue,TEDA, Tianjin 300457, Chi , Tianjin, China , 300457 ; guoqijp@gmail.com.
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine falls risk profiles to derive a falls risks prediction score and establish a simple and practical clinical screening tool for Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals.
METHOD: This was a prospective cohort study (N=619) among adults aged 60 years and older. Falls were ascertained at a 1-year follow-up appointment. Sociodemographic information, medical history and physical performance data were collected.
RESULT: The mean age was 67.4 years; 57.7% were women. Female sex (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.82; 95% CI 1.17-2.82), diabetes (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.13-3.98), a Timed Up and Go Test≥10.49s (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.23-1.94), a history of falls (OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.72-5.79), and depression (Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS)≥11, OR 2.51; 95% CI 1.36-4.63) were the strongest predictors. These predictors were used to establish a risk score. The area under the curve (AUC) of the score was 0.748. From a clinical point of view the most appropriate cutoff value was 7 (97.5% specificity, 70.7% positive predictive value (PPV), and 83.6% negative predictive value (NPV)). For this cutoff, the fraction correctly classified was 82.5%.
CONCLUSION: A cut off score of 7 derived from a risk assessment tool using four risk factors (gender, falls history, diabetes, and depression) and the TUGT may be used in Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals as an initial step to screen those at low risk for falls.