Citation

Atkinson JA, Knowles D, Wiggers J, Livingston M, Room RGW, Prodan A, McDonnell G, O'Donnell E, Jones S, Haber PS, Muscatello D, Ezard N, Phung N, Freebairn L, Indig D, Rychetnik L, Ananthapavan J, Wutzke S. Int. J. Public Health 2018; 63(4): 537-546.

Affiliation

Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y

PMID

29051984

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world.

METHODS: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined.

RESULTS: A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect.

CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

Language: en

Keywords

Agent-based modelling; Alcohol-related harm; Evidence synthesis; Prevention policy