Citation

Drawve G, Moak SC, Berthelot ER. Policing Soc. 2016; 26(3): 312-331.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/10439463.2014.942851

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The current study was designed to assess the possible differences in the accuracy and precision of two methodological mapping techniques as predictors of future gun crimes in Little Rock, AR: (1) risk terrain modelling (RTM) and (2) nearest neighbour hierarchical (Nnh), a traditional hot spot technique, which relies on past crime to predict where future crime is likely to occur. Data from the Little Rock Police Department, the Little Rock Treasury Department and the 2000 census were used to examine Nnh hot spot and RTM methods of gun crime prediction. The RTM incorporated measures of crime generators and crime attractors, while Nnh hot spots were constructed from 2008 gun crime data. The two measures were compared using their predictive accuracy index (PAI) and recapture rate index (RRI) values. Six of the seven social and physical environmental measures in the RTM significantly predicted future gun crime locations and the Nnh hot spots predicted 7% of future gun crime. PAI and RRI values suggested the RTM was more precise than the Nnh hot spot technique and the Nnh hot spot technique was more accurate than the RTM technique. Relying on one spatial prediction technique may create problems with accuracy and reliability. Multiple techniques may be needed to fully assess the phenomenon. Accuracy is a potential limitation of RTM when compared to other techniques, however, RTM is more reliable than Nnh hot spots due to the inclusion of the environmental backcloth. The findings were discussed in relation to crime prediction and policing efforts.

Language: en