Citation

Koren O. Confl. Manage. Peace Sci. 2017; 34(5): 461-484.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0738894215600385

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Forecasting models of state-led mass killing are limited in their use of structural indicators, despite a large body of research that emphasizes the importance of agency and security repertoires in conditioning political violence. I seek to overcome these limitations by developing a theoretical and statistical framework that highlights the advantages of using pro-government militias (PGMs) as a predictive indicator in forecasting models of state-led mass killing. I argue that PGMs can lower the potential costs associated with mass killing for a regime faced with an internal threat, and might hence "tip the balance" in its favor. In estimating a series of statistical models and their receiver-operator characteristic curves to evaluate this hypothesis globally for the years 1981-2007, focusing on 270 internal threat episodes, I find robust support for my expectations: including PGM indicators in state-led mass killing models significantly improves their predictive strength. Moreover, these results hold even when coefficient estimates produced by in-sample data are used to predict state-led mass killing in cross-validation and out-of-sample data for the years 2008-2013. This study hence provides an introductory demonstration of the potential advantages of including security repertoires, in addition to structural factors, in forecasting models.

Language: en