Citation

Showalter PS. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 1993; 11(3): 279-292.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1993, International Sociological Association, International Research Committee on Disasters)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper explores public reaction to pseudoscientific earthquake prediction for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) that achieved wide dissemination between 1989-1990. The prediction originated with Iben Browning, holder of a Ph.D. in zoology, a business consultant, and a self-described climatologist (he had no formal training in the field). Browning claimed that conditions on or around December 3, 1990, would be "ripe" for a sizable earthquake in the NMSZ (as well as other areas around the world). Media attention to the prediction was extensive and accelerated as December 3 neared. Because geologists had already published their believes that the NMSZ had a high probability of experiencing an earthquake in excess of Richter magnitude 6.0 between 1985-2045, it was important to measure the effect Browning's prediction was having on the public's preparation activities as well as on public understanding of the earthquake threat in the region. Because other researchers were studying larger population centers in the area, this study performed two mail surveys of four small communities in or near the periphery of the NMSZ. Results indicate the high concern levels were generally maintained six months following December 1990. If those concerns are used as a catalyst for continuing mitigation behaviors, the Browning prediction may have benefited the region. In addition, most respondents indicated that because of the prediction they felt more aware of the earthquake threat and more prepared for future earthquakes. Finally, regardless of whether an earthquake occurred on December 3, respondents indicated that they would still not only want to hear about future predictions, but that they would not necessarily be more skeptical of such predictions in the future.

Language: en