Citation

Kong VY, Oosthuizen GV, Sartorious B, Bruce JL, Laing GL, Weale R, Clarke DL. Eur. J. Trauma Emerg. Surg. 2018; 44(4): 615-620.

Affiliation

Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Trauma Service, Department of Surgery, Nelson Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s00068-017-0835-1

PMID

28900668

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Cerebral gunshot wounds (GSW) are highly lethal injuries. To date, only one clinical scoring system to predict mortality in a developing world setting has been described. This is the Baragwanath mortality prediction score ("ABC": admission blood pressure, brain matter spillage and consciousness level).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of prospectively entered data for a cohort of patients with isolated cerebral GSWs over a 5-year period (January 2010-December 2014) in our institution. We aimed to validate the Baragwanath ABC mortality prediction score in our population.

RESULTS: During the 5-year study period, 102 patients with isolated cerebral GSWs were reviewed, 22% (22/102) of which died. Based on the total ABC score (1-5), the mortality was 0% for 1, 21% for 2, 67% for 3, 92% for 4, and 100% for 5. The ABC score has a sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 60-95%), specificity of 96% (95% CI 89-99%), PPV of 86% (95% CI 66-96%) and NPV of 95% (95% CI 86-99%).

CONCLUSIONS: The Baragwanath mortality prediction score accurately predicts non survival of patients with a cerebral GSW in our patient cohort. Further validation studies in other populations are required before this system can be widely adopted.

Language: en

Keywords

Gunshot wounds; Mortality; Prediction score