Citation

Farley JE, Barlow HD, Finkelstein MS, Riley L. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 1993; 11(3): 271-277.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1993, International Sociological Association, International Research Committee on Disasters)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Telephone surveys were conducted in the St. Louis metropolitan area, Cape Girardeau, MO, and Sikeston, MO, in October 1990 and February 1991, before and after the date on which Iben Browning predicted a damaging New Madrid earthquake would occur. The surveys revealed that a sizable minority clearly believed Browning's prediction, with a much larger group ambivalent about it. Those with lower levels of education, women, those whose thinking about the prediction was influenced by a minor earthquake that occurred in September, those closer to the New Madrid Fault, and those who expected a war with Iraq were more likely to believe the prediction. Many planned changes in schedules, and such plans were strongly influenced by the perceived actions of significant others. In contrast, they were not strongly influenced by believing or not believing the prediction. When the date of the predicted quake arrived, far fewer actually changed their schedules than had indicated plans to do so, and schedule changes were largely a product of school or work cancellations. The prediction did contribute to an increase in household preparedness which was sustained two months after its disconfirmation, but the actions most often taken were ones that were easiest to make. People close to the fault reported higher levels of preparedness. Despite the disconfirmation of the prediction, most respondents still viewed a damaging earthquake as likely within the next 10 to 15 years.