Citation

Abimbola M, Khan F. Risk Anal. 2018; 38(2): 255-271.

Affiliation

Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12879

PMID

28799658

Abstract

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout.

© 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Language: en

Keywords

Blowout risk analysis; bottom-hole pressure; dynamic risk analysis; equivalent circulating density; loss functions