Citation

Olarinmoye AO, Ojo JF, Fasunla AJ, Ishola OO, Dakinah FG, Mulbah CK, Al-Hezaimi K, Olugasa BO. Spat. Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2017; 22: 1-13.

Affiliation

Centre for Control and Prevention of Zoonoses, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. Electronic address: bolugasa@yahoo.com.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.sste.2017.04.003

PMID

28760263

Abstract

We developed time trend model, determined treatment outcome and estimated annual human deaths among dog bite victims (DBVs) from 2010 to 2013 in Monrovia, Liberia. Data obtained from clinic records included victim's age, gender and site of bite marks, site name of residence of rabies-exposed patients, promptness of care sought, initial treatment and post-exposure-prophylaxis (PEP) compliance. We computed DBV time-trend plot, seasonal index and year 2014 case forecast. Associated annual human death (AHD) was estimated using a standardized decision tree model. Of the 775 DBVs enlisted, care seeking time was within 24h of injury in 328 (42.32%) DBVs. Victim's residential location, site of bite mark, and time dependent variables were significantly associated with treatment outcome (p< 0.05). The equation X^t=28.278-0.365t models the trend of DBVs. The high (n=705, 90.97%) defaulted PEP and average 155 AHD from rabies implied urgent need for policy formulation on national programme for rabies prevention in Liberia.

Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language: en

Keywords

Dog bite; Forecast; Rabies; Treatment outcome