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Citation |
Curt T, Frejaville T. Risk Anal. 2018; 38(3): 472-488. |
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Affiliation |
BIOGECO (UMR 1202), INRA, Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, France. |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 2018, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons) |
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DOI |
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PMID |
28675517 |
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Abstract |
A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire-prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression-oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come. Language: en |
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Keywords |
Fire paradox; fire policy; fire prevention; fire suppression; global changes; sustainable risk management |