Citation

Bogaerts S, Spreen M, Ter Horst P, Gerlsma C. Int. J. Offender Ther. Comp. Criminol. 2018; 62(8): 2259-2270.

Affiliation

University of Groningen, The Netherlands.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0306624X17717128

PMID

28658999

Abstract

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] =.75) and 5 (AUC =.74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC =.62; discharge: AUC =.63) and 5 (admission: AUC =.69; discharge: AUC =.62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC =.71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC =.58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC =.78) and marginal for 5 (AUC =.68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC =.78) and marginal for 5 (AUC =.63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

Language: en

Keywords

HKT-R; clinical decision making; predictive validity; violent recidivism