Citation

Zhu X, Sun B. Int. J. Emerg. Manage. 2017; 13(2): 131-149.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Inderscience Publishers)

DOI

10.1504/IJEM.2017.10003686

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper aims at predicting the dynamic death tolls in earthquakes using a combination of case-based reasoning and a times series model from realistic perspective. The proposed methodology consists of three steps: 1) fuzzy clustering to classify Chinese earthquakes; 2) mortality rates calculating to predict the final death tolls; 3) time series modelling to predict dynamic number of deaths. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20%, and opens the door for conducting final and dynamic death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach.


Keywords: humanitarian logistics; earthquakes; mortality prediction; CBR; case-based reasoning; times series model; China; dynamic modelling; China; seismic activity; death tolls; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy logic; classification; mortality rates; death forecasting.

Language: en