Citation

Das KP, Dey AK. Physica A Stat. Mech. Appl. 2016; 463: 345-355.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.023

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

Language: en