Citation

Langenbruch C, Zoback MD. Sci. Adv. 2016; 2(11): e1601542.

Affiliation

Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science)

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.1601542

PMID

28138533

Abstract

In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas.

Language: en

Keywords

Earthquake forecasting; induced seismicity; saltwater injection; seismic hazard