Citation

Khakzad N, Landucci G, Reniers G. Risk Anal. 2016; 37(9): 1652-1667.

Affiliation

Safety and Security Science Group, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12712

PMID

27862134

Abstract

In the present study, we have introduced a methodology based on graph theory and multicriteria decision analysis for cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants subject to fire-induced domino effects. By modeling domino effects in chemical plants as a directed graph, the graph centrality measures such as out-closeness and betweenness scores can be used to identify the installations playing a key role in initiating and propagating potential domino effects. It is demonstrated that active fire protection of installations with the highest out-closeness score and passive fire protection of installations with the highest betweenness score are the most effective strategies for reducing the vulnerability of chemical plants to fire-induced domino effects. We have employed a dynamic graph analysis to investigate the impact of both the availability and the degradation of fire protection measures over time on the vulnerability of chemical plants. The results obtained from the graph analysis can further be prioritized using multicriteria decision analysis techniques such as the method of reference point to find the most cost-effective fire protection strategy.

© 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Language: en