Citation

Zhang B, Lindzen RS, Tallapragada V, Weng F, Liu Q, Sippel JA, Ma Z, Bender MA. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2016; 113(42): 11765-11769.

Affiliation

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, National Academy of Sciences)

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1613800113

PMID

27698121

Abstract

The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

Language: en