Citation

Concin H, Brozek W, Benedetto KP, Häfele H, Kopf J, Bärenzung T, Schnetzer R, Schenk C, Stimpfl E, Waheed-Hutter U, Ulmer H, Rapp K, Zwettler E, Nagel G. Int. J. Public Health 2016; 61(9): 1021-1030.

Affiliation

Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s00038-016-0878-9

PMID

27549873

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations.

METHODS: Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050.

RESULTS: Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men.

CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

Language: en