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Citation |
Zou Y, Tarko AP. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2016; 96: 152-161. |
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Affiliation |
Center for Road Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN, 47907-2051, United States. Electronic address: tarko@purdue.edu. |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 2016, Elsevier Publishing) |
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DOI |
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PMID |
27529451 |
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Abstract |
Unlike most of traffic safety treatments that prevent crashes, road barriers reduce the severity of crash outcomes by replacing crashes with a high risk of severe injury and fatality (such as median crossover head-on collisions or collisions with high-hazard objects) with less risky events (such as collisions with barriers). This "crash conversion" is actually more complex than one-to-one replacement and it has not been studied yet. The published work estimated the reduction of selected types of crashes (typically, median crossover collisions) or the overall effect of barriers on crash severity. The objective of this study was to study the probabilities of various types of crash events possible under various road and barrier scenarios. The estimated probabilities are conditional given that at least one vehicle left the travelled way and the resulted crash had been recorded. The results are meant to deliver a useful insight onto the conversion of crashes by barriers from more to less risky to help better understand the mechanism of crash severity reduction. Such knowledge should allow engineers more accurate estimation of barriers' benefits and help researchers evaluate barriers' performance to improve the barrier's design. Seven barrier-relevant crash events possible after a vehicle departs the road could be identified based on the existing crash data and their probabilities estimated given the presence and location of three types of barriers: median concrete barriers, median and roadside W-beam steel guardrails, and high-tension median cable barriers. A multinomial logit model with variable outcomes was estimated based on 2049 barrier-relevant crashes occurred between 2003 and 2012 on 1258 unidirectional travelled ways in Indiana. The developed model allows calculating the changes in the probabilities of the barrier-relevant crash events. The results of this study indicated that road departures lead to less frequent crossings of unprotected (no barriers) medians 50-80ft. wide than for narrower medians 30-50ft wide. This benefit decreased with an increase in rollovers inside the median. Although our data indicated no median crossover events when a median barrier was present, the risk of crossovers, although low, is still present and could manifest itself if the sample were larger. The presence of barriers near a travelled way was associated with a higher risk of redirecting errant vehicles back to the roadway where they could collide with other vehicles continuing on the road. As expected, cable barriers installed on the far-side edge of a median were associated with a lower probability of being hit by errant vehicles and of redirecting vehicles into traffic than the nearside cable barriers. On the other hand, the probability of off-road non-barrier crashes was higher because vehicles penetrating the median from the unprotected side were exposed to median ditches and similar obstacles. The roadside guardrails were confirmed to reduce the percentage of hazardous off-road crashes. The results of this study facilitate a more transparent evaluation of the safety effect of road barriers. Language: en |