Citation

Heaviside C, Tsangari H, Paschalidou A, Vardoulakis S, Kassomenos P, Georgiou KE, Yamasaki EN. Sci. Total Environ. 2016; 569-570: 627-633.

Affiliation

University of Nicosia, 46 Makedonitissas Ave, 1700 Nicosia, Cyprus.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.138

PMID

27376918

Abstract

Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.

Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Language: en