Citation

Raeside R, White D. Transp. Res. Rec. 2004; 1897: 142-147.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2004, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

Monthly time series data related to road traffic and pedestrian casualties and fatalities in Great Britain are analyzed and trends are identified. These forecasts are based on extrapolation of the absolute number of casualties and not the ratio of casualties to 100 million vehicle kilometers. A short review of influences on these trends is presented, and a number of statistical forecasting autoregressive integrated moving average models are then constructed. Predictions produced are compared with government targets, and it is found that targets for fatal, serious, and slight casualty reduction are on track to be met. However, there are fewer grounds for optimism regarding pedestrian casualties.

Language: en