Citation

Knecht W. Transp. Res. Rec. 1997; 1567: 26-32.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1997, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.3141/1567-04

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The evaluation of single-aircraft-pair midair collision risk in the national airspace system is addressed. A nonlinear mathematical function is proposed to model the most significant feature of this risk. The function estimates probability of collision as a function of time to contact. Previous attempts to model collision risk have met with difficulty when faced with the challenge of integrating multiple, uncertain probability density functions for the individual components of risk. This approach sidesteps this problem by finding a psychometric function for collision-avoidance performance. This function is evaluated logically and by curve fitting to flight simulator data from commercial airline pilots in simulated conflict scenarios. Analysis of these data gives preliminary support for the appropriateness of the approach. Properly parameterized, such a function or family of functions could be projected to estimate the probability of collision associated with a planned aircraft maneuver. This is similar to the idea of the "conflict probe" currently being explored by the aviation community in its effort to institute free flight.

Language: en