Citation

Zhang J, Teixeira ÂP, Guedes Soares C, Yan X, Liu K. Risk Anal. 2016; 36(6): 1171-1187.

Affiliation

School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12519

PMID

26895225

Abstract

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port.

Language: en