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Citation |
Kim JK, Kim S, Ulfarsson GF, Porrello LA. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2007; 39(2): 238-251. |
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Affiliation |
Washington University in St. Louis, Dept of Civil Engineering, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899, USA. (jk9@cec.wustl.edu) (kims@umkc.edu) (gfu@wustl.edu) (lporrello@hntb.com) |
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Copyright |
(Copyright © 2007, Elsevier Publishing) |
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DOI |
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PMID |
17005154 |
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Abstract |
This research explores the factors contributing to the injury severity of bicyclists in bicycle-motor vehicle accidents using a multinomial logit model. The model predicts the probability of four injury severity outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. The analysis is based on police-reported accident data between 1997 and 2002 from North Carolina, USA. The results show several factors which more than double the probability of a bicyclist suffering a fatal injury in an accident, all other things being kept constant. Notably, inclement weather, darkness with no streetlights, a.m. peak (06:00a.m. to 09:59a.m.), head-on collision, speeding-involved, vehicle speeds above 48.3km/h (30mph), truck involved, intoxicated driver, bicyclist age 55 or over, and intoxicated bicyclist. The largest effect is caused when estimated vehicle speed prior to impact is greater than 64.4km/h (50mph), where the probability of fatal injury increases more than 16-fold. Speed also shows a threshold effect at 32.2km/h (20mph), which supports the commonly used 30km/h speed limit in residential neighborhoods. The results also imply that bicyclist fault is more closely correlated with greater bicyclist injury severity than driver fault. Language: en |