Citation

Ruser A. Curr. Sociol. 2015; 63(2): 170-181.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2015, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0011392114556581

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This article questions why sociology still lacks elaborate methods of scientific forecasting. Following a critical discussion of two main obstacles for sociological futures research – complexity and interaction – the deductive scenario development approach is introduced. Since scenario planning stresses plausibility not probability, it enables sociologists to create logical, not likely pictures of alternative futures. As a way of producing scientific results concerning future developments as well as testing scientific models, deductive scenario planning is labelled as sociological quasi-labs.

Language: en