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Abstract
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The spatial distribution of future landslide risk is influenced by several dynamic factors related to global change such as variance in distribution of elements at risk or changes in precipitation patterns. The assessment of future spatial distribution of landslide risk is essential for efficient and sustainable risk management and the development of adequate adaptation strategies to global change.
The objective of this study is to approximate landslide exposure for the two future periods 2030-2050 and 2050-2100 considering the potential development of land cover and climate change scenarios as an intermediate step within risk analysis. In order to link the future potential developments to current conditions and past changes, an analysis of former land cover changes is performed. This leads to a total analysis period of more than 100 years. The collection of the different datasets is based on various methods such as remote sensing, field mapping and modelling.
The study area is the district Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. It comprises approximately 130 km2; thus a regional assessment is required. Within the study area, a variety of land cover types such as building area, agricultural areas and forests can be observed. The future climate is characterized by generally dry summers and average wet winters. However, the frequency of intense rainfall events increases in summer.
The visualisation of these landslide exposure scenarios can significantly contribute to the awareness of eventual problems that need to be faced in the future. Consequently, the results of such analyses might support the improvement of future adaption and management strategies. |