Citation

Zhu SP, Huang HZ, Peng W, Wang HK, Mahadevan S. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety 2016; 146: 1-12.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ress.2015.10.002

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs.