Citation

Scalley BD, Spicer T, Jian L, Xiao J, Nairn J, Robertson A, Weeramanthri T. Aust. N. Zeal. J. Public Health 2015; 39(6): 582-587.

Affiliation

Public Health Division, Department of Health, Government of Western Australia.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2015, Public Health Association of Australia, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/1753-6405.12421

PMID

26260877

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine which measures of heatwave have the greatest predictive power for increases in health service utilisation in Perth, Western Australia.

METHODS: Three heatwave formulas were compared, using Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson regression, against the number of presentations to emergency departments from all causes, and the number of inpatient admissions from heat-related causes. The period from July 2006 to June 2013 was included. A series of standardised thresholds were calculated to allow comparison between formulas, in the absence of a gold standard definition of heatwaves.

RESULTS: Of the three heatwave formulas, Excess Heat Factor (EHF) produced the most clear dose-response relationship with Emergency Department presentations. The EHF generally predicted periods that resulted in a similar or higher rate of health service utilisation, as compared to the two other formulas, for the thresholds examined.

CONCLUSIONS: The EHF formula, which considers a period of acclimatisation as well as the maximum and minimum temperature, best predicted periods of greatest health service demand. The strength of the dose-response relationship reinforces the validity of the measure as a predictor of hazardous heatwave intensity. IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest that the EHF formula is well suited for use as a means of activating heatwave plans and identifies the required level of response to extreme heatwave events as well as moderate heatwave events that produce excess health service demand.

Language: en