Citation

Seposo XT, Dang TN, Honda Y. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015; 12(6): 6842-6857.

Affiliation

Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan. honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2015, MDPI: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute)

DOI

10.3390/ijerph120606842

PMID

26086706

Abstract

The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006-2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31-1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27-1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23-1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.

Language: en