Citation

Snyder JC. Transp. Res. Rec. 1974; 486: 11-18.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1974, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This study is concerned with identification and quantification of environmental determinants of traffic accidents and with the construction of a conceptual model of traffic accidents based on environmental factors. Dependent variables include accident numbers and rates (number of accidents per million vehicle-miles of travel). Independent variables include physical characteristics of the road, the road frontage (adjacent land use), and physical and social characteristics of the region. Data are derived from a sample of 135 road segments, each 2 miles long, in Oakland County, Michigan. A wide range of environmental characteristics are represented. Automatic interaction detection, multiple classification analysis, and multiple regression techniques are used to construct a series of predictive models. Analysis indicates that the number of accidents on a road segment is best predicted from traffic volumes and accident rates, whereas accident rates are best predicted from the type of road, the intensity of road frontage development, and the percentage of population between 16 and 24. Inspection of the formulated models suggest a conceptual macromodel that is different from traditional models of traffic accidents.