Citation

Xie SH, Wu YS, Liu XJ, Fu YB, Li SS, Ma HW, Zou F, Cheng JQ. Traffic Injury Prev. 2016; 17(1): 39-43.

Affiliation

a Shenzhen Center for Diseases Prevention and Control , Shenzhen, Guangdong Province , China.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/15389588.2015.1035370

PMID

25837500

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen.

METHODS: Using data from Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000-2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from the Smeed's law.

RESULTS: A total of 20 196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14 391 (71.3 %) male deaths and 5 805 (28.7 %) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since the year 1994 until peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compare with those aged less than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population was positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per km road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths / 10 000 vehicles) = -1.902 × ln (vehicles / population) - 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P < 0.001) and the coefficient of determination was 0.966, indicating the goodness of model fit.

CONCLUSIONS: We described a generally decreased trend in the mortality rates of road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in a 20-year period of 1994-2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a universal problem of great public health concern in the whole population.

Language: en