Citation

Brownlee J. Stud. Comp. Int. Dev. 2010; 45(4): 468-489.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, Transaction Periodicals Consortium)

DOI

10.1007/s12116-010-9073-9

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In strategic accounts of democratization, credible commitments by the opposition shape whether incumbents will relinquish power. Revisiting Kalyvas's study of Algeria and Belgium, this article introduces evidence from Egypt that shows the structural readiness of incumbents remains as consequential as commitment credibility. During the period 1990-2008 the credibility of democratic commitments by the Egyptian opposition improved along the lines identified by Kalyvas. Unlike its Algerian counterpart, the Islamic movement in Egypt was able to "silence the radicals" and, after 1998, emit a non-dissonant message of electoral participation without militia violence. This improvement in commitment credibility was not reciprocated by Egyptian elites, who enjoyed western support and a sturdy repressive apparatus. Similar factors obstructed the Algerian opposition and they indicate a more disciplined, less dissonant Islamic party would have been unlikely to effect a democratic transition. Transitions are most likely when a credibly committed opposition faces an elite ready to rotate power. The second factor helps explain the success of the Catholic party in Belgium and the failure of comparable Islamic movements in North Africa.

Language: en