Citation

Dieckmann NF, Peters E, Gregory R. Risk Anal. 2015; 35(7): 1281-1295.

Affiliation

School of Nursing & Department of Public Health & Preventative Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA; Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2015, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12358

PMID

25808952

Abstract

Numerical uncertainty ranges are often used to convey the precision of a forecast. In three studies, we examined how users perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges and test specific hypotheses about the display characteristics that affect these perceptions. We discuss five primary conclusions from these studies: (1) substantial variation exists in how people perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges; (2) distributional perceptions appear similar whether the uncertain variable is a probability or an outcome; (3) the variation in distributional perceptions is due in part to individual differences in numeracy, with more numerate individuals more likely to perceive the distribution as roughly normal; (4) the variation is also due in part to the presence versus absence of common cues used to convey the correct interpretation (e.g., including a best estimate increases perceptions that the distribution is roughly normal); and (5) simple graphical representations can decrease the variance in distributional perceptions. These results point toward significant opportunities to improve uncertainty communication in climate change and other domains.

Language: en