Citation

Papadimitriou EE. Nat. Hazards 1994; 9(3): 303-321.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1994, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/BF00690743

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Earthquake recurrence intervals for large and great shallow mainshocks in 12 seismogenic sources along the North Pacific seismic zone (Alaska-Aleutians-Kamchatka-Kuril Islands) have been estimated and used for the determination of the following relations: $$begin{gathered} log T_t = 0.30M_{min } + 0.15M_{text{p}} - 0.27 log dot M_{text{O}} + 5.24, hfill \ M_{text{f}} = 1.05M_{min } - 0.47M_{text{p}} - 0.60 log dot M_{text{O}} + 12.39, hfill \ end{gathered} $$ whereT t is the interevent time, measured in years,M min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered,M p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock,M f the magnitude of the following mainshock,M o the moment rate in each source per year. The positive dependence ofT t on theM p implies that the time-predictable model is valid for the area under examination, a very interesting property, since it contributes to the realistic progress toward the long-term prediction of earthquakes. The ratioT/T t, whereT is the observed repeat time andT t the theoretical one, concerning all the data coming from all the sources, is examined and it is found that it follows better the lognormal distribution. This distribution is finally used to estimate the probabilities for the occurrence of the expected next large (M s ≥ 7.5) shallow mainshocks in the 12 seismogenic sources during the next decade, while from the second of the above relations the magnitude of the expected event is also estimated.

Language: en