Citation

Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B. Environ. Health Perspect. 2014; 122(12): 1285-1292.

Affiliation

Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, U.K.; National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; and Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2014, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences)

DOI

10.1289/ehp.1307524

PMID

25222967

Abstract

BACKGROUND: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century due to climate change.

OBJECTIVES: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.

METHODS: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates.

RESULTS: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for over one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, around 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.

CONCLUSIONS: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the UK and Australia over this century, but also in a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by ageing populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed. 

Language: en