Citation

Maukisch H, Kannheiser W, Radwan E. Blutalkohol 2000; 37(6): 411-433.

Affiliation

Institut fur Psychologie, Obergutachterstelle, 80802 Munchen, Germany

Copyright

(Copyright © 2000, International Committee on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety and Bund gegen Alkohol und Drogen im Straßenverkehr, Publisher Steintor Verlag)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

141 assessments carried out between 1986 and 1996 at the medico-psychological-technical reassessment office at the University of Munich were evaluated. The likelihood of a repeated alcohol related offence by people with positive and negative prognosis as well as the speed of a repeated offence were established. The methodological difficulties in the evaluation of psychological assessments with a low number of cases are discussed. The problems with the interpretation of results are explained in cases where legal efficiency data is used as a criterion for successful prognosis. The success quota of the positive and negative prognosis were determined by means of different aspects (differently determined periods of observation, with or without consideration of re-granting of driving licences, comparison to prevalence studies, comparison with other psychological assessments). No significant results could be achieved on the (minimum) 5% level. When evaluating recognizable trends of the results, which so far are only of descriptive character, with regard to the consequences of further evaluation practice the conclusion is reached that the diagnostic criteria of the assessment can be retained. Drivers with a negative prognosis were correctly assigned to the group of unsuitable drivers. An increase in the number of cases could mean that in later evaluations of the psychological assessments a favourable percentage of positively diagnosed repeated offenders is to be of some significance after all. Our results are, as far as comparisons are possible, on about the same level as other evaluations of psychological assessments. The increased observation span in all studies brings with it an increase of positively assessed offenders which indicates an underestimated danger of alcohol for that group and suggests a general reassessment after three years. The quicker re-offending of negatively assessed drivers emphasizes the assessment criteria of abnormal drinking behaviour.