Citation

Kunkel E. Blutalkohol 1977; 14(3): 129-143.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1977, International Committee on Alcohol, Drugs and Traffic Safety and Bund gegen Alkohol und Drogen im Straßenverkehr, Publisher Steintor Verlag)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In the field of traffic safety, follow-up studies are the only appropriate method for assessing the success of therapeutic measures as well as the validity of the diagnosis of driving aptitude. The results of follow-up studies are comparable only if their time frames are of equal length. In order to be able to define the optimum length of time for follow-up studies concerning DWI (driving while under the influence of alcohol)-drivers, it is first necessary to know the distribution of the proportions of time between DWI-convictions. The results of empirical studies show that the length of a follow-up should be at least ten years. However, even after ten years, not all those who will be convicted again for DWI will already have been convicted. It is not possible to have a ten year length of time in all follow-up studies. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the percent recidivism for the ten year follow-up from the results of a shorter follow-up by taking into account the distribution of the proportion of time between DWI-convictions. This distribution has been established here in a retrospective analysis of a sample of drivers who had been convicted three times for DWI. The sampling procedure and possible sources of error were discussed. It was demonstrated that the probable recidivism in a ten year follow-up can be estimated by using these empirically established data for the times between DWI-convictions. These data show that more than 50% of recidivist DWI-drivers will be convicted again more than three years after the last DWI conviction prior to the follow-up period.