Citation

Slovic P, Fischhoff B. Risk Anal. 1982; 2(4): 227-234.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1982, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01385.x

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A fundamental premise of government and industry safety policies is that it is possible to reduce the rate and severity of accidents by improving the design of machines and the environment in which they are used and increasing the skill of their human operators. Wilde's thory of risk homeostasis constitutes a frontal attack on this premise and, accordingly, on the safety measures based on it. Wildest be congratulated for carefully and explicitly setting out a fascinating theory of risk-taking behavior. In addition to its theoretical interest, his proposal has important practical implications making it worthy of a detailed, critical examination. To the extent that it is valid, the theory points to a need for significant changes in how society allocates its resources so as to maximize health and safety without sacrificing economic vitality and productivity. Comments here shall focus on three general topics. The first is the nature of the theory and it's assumptions. The second is the potential for testing the theory. The third is the inherent limitations of theories that attempt to deal with risk issues in isolation. Although we remain skeptical of the truth of this theory, we find it highly productive of research questions, answers to which could markedly improved safety policy.

Language: en