Citation

Yu R, Shi Q, Abdel-Aty MA. Transp. Res. Rec. 2013; 2386: 35-41.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.3141/2386-05

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The feasibility of using reliability analysis methods in traffic safety analyses is investigated. The reliability analysis approach, frequently used to evaluate the probability of failure of a specific structural system, has two main outcomes: the reliability index and the design points. Two approaches to using these two outcomes in traffic safety analyses are presented. Data from a mountainous freeway in Colorado are used. The reliability index is used to evaluate the hazardous freeway segments by incorporating the traffic flow parameters provided by radar detectors. The design points are employed to evaluate real-time crash occurrence risk at the disaggregate level with weather parameters. Finally, results of the reliability analysis approach are compared with the results of traditional methods. The reliability analysis method shows promising application in traffic safety studies. With the use of the reliability indexes, the three most hazardous freeway segments are identified. Moreover, with the design points, the accuracy rate of predicting crash occurrence is improved by 10.53% as compared with the logistic regression method.