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Abstract
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VioLit summary:
OBJECTIVE:
The purpose of this study by Horney and Marshall was to explore the relationships among perceived risk of sanctions, participation in crime, and experience of formal sanctions.
METHODOLOGY:
The authors used a quasi-experimental design to test relationships between risk of sanctions, participation in crime and experience of formal sanctions. The data was obtained through interviews of 1,046 convicted male offenders housed at the Nebraska Department of Corrections. The sample was 61% white and the mean age was 28. The dependent variable, perceived risk, was measured by asking respondents to estimate the likelihood of arrest if they committed a specific crime. Respondents answered on an 11-point scale ranging from 0% (no risk) to 100% (high risk). The independent variable, arrest and participation ratio, was obtained by asking respondents about the frequency of criminal activity for nine crimes (burglary, business robbery, personal robbery, assault, theft, auto theft, forgery/bad checks, fraud, and drug dealing) for a reference period of three-years immediately preceding the arrest for the offense from which the current incarceration followed. Respondents were considered participants in a crime category if they reported committing that offense at least once during the three-year period. To measure arrests, respondents were asked for each crime in which they reported being active, how many arrests occurred. The crime-specific number of arrests was divided by the total number of offenses the respondent reported during the reference period, this number served as the arrest to crime ratio. Dummy coding represented six levels of arrest ratio, from zero (active but never arrested) to one (arrested for every offense committed). The authors controlled for the total number of crime-specific offenses committed during the reference period, the total number of crime-specific arrests, and the number of lifetime arrests. Other control variables were age, race, education, age at first arrest, and drug use during the reference period. Multivariate analysis was used to estimate the dependent variable.
FINDINGS/DISCUSSION:
Zero-order correlations between perceived likelihood of arrest for a particular crime and participation in that crime revealed an inverse relationship. That is, as participation in a specific crime increased, perception of the likelihood of arrest for that crime decreased. The authors also found that the active groups who committed an offense during the reference period but were never arrested for it had consistently lower risk estimates than the inactive (not active in a particular crime area) groups for that offense. The authors also reported for every crime category except assault, those with arrest ratios of zero had estimates of arrest risks significantly lower than those of the inactive group. For all other offenses except drug dealing, risk estimates for those arrested for at least half the offenses they committed did not differ significantly from estimates of the inactive group. Drug dealing produced risk estimates higher than those of the inactive group. Additionally, it was reported that drug use during the reference period had lower estimates of risk of arrest. Also, for some offenses, younger offenders produced lower risk estimates than older offenders. The authors also reported positive correlations between age at first arrest and perceived risk. The number of crime-specific arrests was not significantly associated to perceived certainty of arrest for any offense category. The authors also found that being arrested a greater number of times does not necessarily increase an assessment of risk. An increase in the number of arrests raised estimates, however, only when arrest quantity was large relative to the number of crimes reported. The authors also reported that the more assaults a respondent reported committing, the lower the estimates of certainty of arrest. The authors concluded that they had discovered an overall inverse relationship between participation in an offense and perceived risk of arrest for that offense.
The authors stated that the data indicates perceptions of risk of arrest are formed in a rational manner. In eight of the nine crimes, perceived risk of active offenders differed from the perceptions of inactives depending on the ratio of arrests to offenses. Assault and auto theft, however, did not fit the pattern; there, an inverse relationship between perceived risk and arrest ratio existed.
AUTHORS' RECOMMENDATIONS:
The authors stated that further research in this area should include other variables found to be related to estimates of perceived risk, such as measures of informal sanctions, and social-control variables. In addition, the authors suggested consideration of the role of vicarious experience of sanctions and communications regarding risk.
(CSPV Abstract - Copyright © 1992-2007 by the Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence, Institute of Behavioral Science, Regents of the University of Colorado)
Male Crime
Male Offender
Male Violence
Male Inmate
Male Perceptions
Nebraska
Inmate Studies
Incarcerated
Adult Inmate
Adult Male
Adult Offender
Adult Crime
Adult Perceptions
Adult Violence
Risk Perceptions
Crime Perceptions
Crime Effects
Violence Effects
Violence Perceptions
Criminal Justice System
Deterrence
Punishment Perceptions
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