Citation

Xu Z, Zou L, Lu X. Disaster Adv. 2013; 6(6): 45-51.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, Shankar Gargh)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A fast method for predicting typhoon tracks based on historical data is proposed in this study. A typhoon track database is built containing 44-year typhoon data for China. Based on this database, typhoon tracks similar to the current typhoon are identified via the similarities of the key typhoon track points and geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis. The central positions of typhoons after 24 and 48 h are quickly forecasted according to these similar tracks. The prediction results can be continuously corrected by the latest position of a typhoon every 6 h. Three typhoons are chosen to demonstrate the predicted typhoon track and 103 typhoons in 10 years are used to validate the accuracy of the prediction. The results indicate that the computing time of the prediction is less than 1 min and the accuracy of the prediction is very close to the official prediction of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). This method provides a quick and accurate reference for predicting typhoons.

Language: en