Citation

Xue Y. Disaster Adv. 2013; 6(5): 78-87.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, Shankar Gargh)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In this paper, based on fuzzy information granulation approach, a soft hierarchical risk assessment model of natural disasters is developed. The case study is carried out by taking earthquake disasters of Lijiang in Yunnan as an example. The result is compared respectively with the fourth generation of the seismic risk zoning map of China and the soft risk zoning map. The advantages and features of our model are: (1) The data needed in our model are relatively simple or easily available ones which are neither over-complex as in the fourth generation of seismic risk zoning map nor over-simple as the soft risk zoning map; (2) Our model includes both natural and social attributes of the risk assessment of a natural disaster while the merely natural attributes are considered in the fourth generation of seismic risk zoning map and the soft risk zoning map; (3) Our model takes the imprecision of data into account in addition to fuzzy randomness in the involved parameters while the randomness is reflected by means of exceeding probability in the fourth generation of seismic risk zoning map and information diffusion technology is employed to represent fuzzy randomness in the soft risk zoning map. (4) The proposed model presents results in the form of fuzzy information granulation while both the fourth generation of seismic risk zoning map and the soft risk zoning map present an actual value to assess the earthquake risk.