Citation

Omi T, Ogata Y, Hirata Y, Aihara K. Sci. Rep. 2013; 3: 2218.

Affiliation

1] FIRST, Aihara Innovative Mathematical Modelling Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan [2] Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1038/srep02218

PMID

23860594

PMCID

PMC3715793

Abstract

Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.

Language: en