Citation

Dickson SR, Polaschek DLL, Casey AR. Psychol. Crime Law 2013; 19(4): 371-389.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2013, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/1068316X.2011.640634

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Even when motivated to desist from crime, many high-risk offenders fail quickly following release from prison. One cause may be a lack of preparation for release. Recent research with child-sex offenders has demonstrated that men who avoided reconvictions not only had better plans made for life on parole prior to their release, but plan quality also added significant incremental validity to the prediction of recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic measures of risk. This study examined release planning in high-risk violent prisoners in an intensive cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation programme. We compared the predictive validity of plan quality with three well-validated risk assessment instruments. Men who were reconvicted had significantly higher scores on all three risk instruments and significantly poorer plans, but plan quality did not significantly improve prediction when risk was controlled. Plan quality was also significantly poorer in men who were reimprisoned, and did significantly improve prediction over and above each risk prediction instrument. Findings suggest that higher quality release plans may protect offenders from being quickly reimprisoned, despite high levels of assessed criminal risk, and that enhancing resources put into release planning may lead to improved parole outcomes.