Citation

Versini PA, Gaume E, Andrieu H. Bulletin des laboratoires des ponts et chaussees 2010; (277): 75-84.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Is it possible to predict, during major flooding events, which roads will be submerged, so as to mitigate the risks of property damage and personal injury on the road network and to direct rescue services onto safe itineraries for their emergency response missions? In order to study the possibilities and current limitations of hydrological forecasting models, an initial prototype for predicting road closures due to submersion during major floods has been developed by LCPCs Water Division for the Gard Department in southern France. This research mission has given rise to a doctoral thesis and has been conducted in collaboration with the Cereve Research Institute (ENPC Engineering Center), within the scope of the European project entitled Floodsite (part of the 6th RD Framework Program). The Gard Department happens to be well suited for this initial test since it frequently experiences violent floods causing roads to be submerged, events for which considerable data have been collected by road operators, thus offering the possibility to calibrate and test the prototype. The first set of results obtained have been promising and demonstrates, beyond this particular application, that hydrological forecasting models (especially of the distributed type) can be of great utility in managing crisis situations despite the high level of uncertainty associated with their output. This potential remains largely untapped by agencies responsible for local flood forecasting.