Citation

Buzeman DG, Viano DC, Lövsund P. Accid. Anal. Prev. 1998; 30(6): 713-722.

Affiliation

Department of Injury Prevention, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1998, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

9805514

Abstract

A new mathematical model was developed to estimate average injury and fatality rates in frontal car-to-car crashes for changes in vehicle fleet mass, impact speed distribution, and inherent vehicle protection. The estimates were calculated from injury fatality risk data, delta-V distribution and collision probability of two vehicles, where delta V-depends on impact speed and mass of the colliding vehicles. The impact speed distribution was assumed to be unaffected by a change in fleet mass distribution. The results showed that safety in frontal crashes would improve 27-35% by a 10% increase in fatality risk parameters, which reflected substantial improvement in inherent vehicle protection. A 40% safety improvement was attained by a 10% impact speed reduction. Consequences of vehicle fleet mass were not as strong, but depended on the average mass ratio of the fleet. A reduction in mass range would be the most beneficial, while a uniform mass reduction of 20% would increase the fatality rate by 5.4%. The model estimates trends in traffic safety and may help to identify priorities in active and passive safety.