Citation

Gudishala R, Wilmot C. Transp. Res. Rec. 2012; 2312: 134-140.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2012, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.3141/2312-14

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Models that predict hurricane evacuation demand can play a crucial role in developing and evaluating alternative evacuation policies and plans. However, to evaluate alternative policies effectively, evacuation demand models should be sensitive to time varying characteristics of a storm and the contextual conditions surrounding an evacuee. The time-dependent sequential logit is one such model, but it makes use of restrictive assumptions about the dynamic choices made by evacuees. A new model, a time-dependent nested logit model, relaxes those assumptions. It was formulated and derived in this study, and its performance was then compared with that of the time-dependent sequential logit model by applying both models to data from Hurricane Gustav. The results indicated that the time-dependent nested logit model has better predictive capability than the time-dependent sequential logit model.