Citation

Mussone L, Ferrari A, Oneta M. Accid. Anal. Prev. 1999; 31(6): 705-718.

Affiliation

Department of Transport Systems and Mobility, Polytechnic of Milan, Italy. mussone@mail.polimi.it

Copyright

(Copyright © 1999, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

10487346

Abstract

Traditional studies on road accidents estimate the effect of variables (such as vehicular flows, road geometry, vehicular characteristics), and the calculation of the number of accidents. A descriptive statistical analysis of the accidents (those used in the model) over the period 1992-1995 is proposed. The paper describes an alternative method based on the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in order to work out a model that relates to the analysis of vehicular accidents in Milan. The degree of danger of urban intersections using different scenarios is quantified by the ANN model. Methodology is the first result, which allows us to tackle the modelling of urban vehicular accidents by the innovative use of ANN. Other results deal with model outputs: intersection complexity may determine a higher accident index depending on the regulation of intersection. The highest index for running over of pedestrian occurs at non-signalised intersections at night-time.