Citation

Antholz B. Arch. Kriminol. 2012; 230(3-4): 73-87.

Vernacular Title

M-Zyklus der Kriminalität.

Affiliation

Institut für Kriminologische Sozialforschung der Universität Hamburg.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2012, Verlag Schmidt-Romhild)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

23136697

Abstract

Crime development measured by means of the changes in police recorded crime statistics (criminal offences per 100.000 inhabitants) shows periodical cycles, which can be described by the capital letter M. Starting from a low rate of criminality, crime rises over 1-3 years followed by an interim decline lasting for about one year. Then crime increases again for approximately 2 years to a second peak. After that, crime strongly declines to the next low point over a period of about two years. The course of this development is not uniform with equal amplitudes, but resembles an M-curve. Since 1950, seven such M-cycles have been observed with the 3rd M-cycle from 1965-1973, the 4th M-cycle from 1973-1984, the 5th M-cycle from 1984-1994, the 6th M-cycle from 1994-2005 and the 7th M-cycle from 2005-2010 being particularly distinct. The M-curve of crime may be explained by the M-form of the business cycle. Since World War II, the M-cycle of crime and the M-cycle of the economy have run approximately parallel. Up to the first large oil crisis, the M-cycle of crime preceded the economic situation by 1-2 years, whereas since 1976 it has followed the economic development with a time lag of one to two years.

Language: de